Materials Transactions Online

Materials Transactions, Vol.59 No.06 (2018) pp.989-998
© 2018 The Japan Institute of Metals and Materials

Dynamic Material Flow Analysis and Forecast of Copper in Global-Scale: Considering the Difference of Recovery Potential between Copper and Copper Alloy

Akihiro Yoshimura and Yasunari Matsuno

Graduate School of Engineering, Chiba University, Chiba 263-8522, Japan

The recovery of copper (Cu) from secondary sources has received much attention because of its scarcity of natural resources. In this work, we estimated the input, in-use stock and discard of copper and copper alloy during 1950-2015 in global scale, and forecast them until 2050. In addition, we estimated the potential of scrap recovery for copper/copper alloys. It was estimated that the total amount of in-use stock of copper and copper alloy were 177,000 kt and 44,200 kt in 2015, respectively. The in-use stock, discard and input of copper in 2050 will reach 381,000-588,000 kt, 15,400-22,200 kt and 18,990-33,000 kt, respectively, whereas those for copper alloy will reach 77,500-134,000 kt, 3,020-4,680 kt and 3,760-7,200 kt, respectively. The copper content in recoverable scraps of copper and copper alloy will reach 15,100-27,300 kt, and this accounts for 55.1-79.0% of copper content in annual input of copper and copper alloy in 2050. The range in forecast was caused by the difference in the saturation amount of in-use stock per capita and recovering rates of scraps.


(Received 2017/12/18; Accepted 2018/03/29; Published 2018/05/25)

Keywords: copper, copper alloy, dynamic material flow analysis, 2050

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