Materials Transactions Online

Materials Transactions, Vol.59 No.06 (2018) pp.989-998
© 2018 The Japan Institute of Metals and Materials

Dynamic Material Flow Analysis and Forecast of Copper in Global-Scale: Considering the Difference of Recovery Potential between Copper and Copper Alloy

Akihiro Yoshimura and Yasunari Matsuno

Graduate School of Engineering, Chiba University, Chiba 263-8522, Japan

The recovery of copper (Cu) from secondary sources has received much attention because of its scarcity of natural resources. In this work, we estimated the input, in-use stock and discard of copper and copper alloy during 1950-2015 in global scale, and forecast them until 2050. In addition, we estimated the potential of scrap recovery for copper/copper alloys. It was estimated that the total amount of in-use stock of copper and copper alloy were 177,000 kt and 44,200 kt in 2015, respectively. The in-use stock, discard and input of copper in 2050 will reach 381,000-588,000 kt, 15,400-22,200 kt and 18,990-33,000 kt, respectively, whereas those for copper alloy will reach 77,500-134,000 kt, 3,020-4,680 kt and 3,760-7,200 kt, respectively. The copper content in recoverable scraps of copper and copper alloy will reach 15,100-27,300 kt, and this accounts for 55.1-79.0% of copper content in annual input of copper and copper alloy in 2050. The range in forecast was caused by the difference in the saturation amount of in-use stock per capita and recovering rates of scraps.

[doi:10.2320/matertrans.M2017399]

(Received 2017/12/18; Accepted 2018/03/29; Published 2018/05/25)

Keywords: copper, copper alloy, dynamic material flow analysis, 2050

PDF(member)PDF (member) PDF(organization)PDF (organization) Order DocumentOrder Document Table of ContentsTable of Contents

REFERENCES

  1. Homepage of Copper Development Association Inc.: Copper is …, https://www.copper.org/education/copper-is/, 2017/5/30.
  2. Homepage of USGS 2017: Minerals Information, Copper statistics and Information https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/copper/mcs-2017-coppe.pdf, 2017/5/30.
  3. Homepage of Japan Copper and Brass Association: Copper and recycling, http://www.copper-brass.gr.jp/english/shindouhin-e/recycle.html, 2017/5/30.
  4. Daigo I., Hashimoto S., Matsuno Y. and Adachi Y.: Resour. Conserv. Recycling 53 (2009) 208-217.
  5. Chen W., Wang M. and Li X.: Resour. Conserv. Recycling 111 (2016) 67-76.
  6. Bonnin M., Azzaro-Pantel C., Pibouleau L., Domenech S. and Villeneuve J.: Chem. Eng. Res. Des. 91 (2013) 1390-1402.
  7. Tanimoto A.H., Durany X.G., Villalba G. and Pires A.C.: Resour. Conserv. Recycling 55 (2010) 20-28.
  8. Xueyi G. and Yu S.: Resour. Conserv. Recycling 52 (2008) 874-882.
  9. Zhang L., Yang J., Cai Z. and Yuan Z.: Sci. Total Environ. 478 (2014) 80-89.
  10. Terakado R., Takahashi K.I., Daigo I., Matsuno Y. and Adachi Y.: J. Jpn. Inst. Metal Mater. 73 (2009) 833-838.
  11. Kapur A., Bertram M., Spatari S., Fuse K. and Graedel T.E.: J. Mater Cycles Waste 5 (2003) 143-156.
  12. Spatari S., Bertram M., Gordon R.B., Henderson K. and Graedel T.E.: Ecol. Econ. 54 (2005) 37-51.
  13. Vexler D., Bertram M., Kapur A., Spatari S. and Graedel T.E.: Resour. Conserv. Recycling 41 (2004) 23-46.
  14. Bertram M., Graedel T.E., Rechberger H. and Spatari S.: Ecol. Econ. 42 (2002) 43-57.
  15. Ciacci L., Vassura I. and Passarini F.: Resources 6 (2017) 6.
  16. Graedel T.E., Beers D.V., Bertram M., Fuse K., Gordon R.B., Gristsinin A., Kapur A., Kless R.J., Lifset R.J., Menon L., Recherger H., Spatari S. and Vexler D.: Environ. Sci. Technol. 38 (2004) 1242-1252.
  17. Glöser S., Soulier M. and Espinoza L.A.T.: Environ. Sci. Technol. 47 (2013) 6564-6572.
  18. Hatayama H., Daigo I., Matsuno Y. and Adachi Y.: Environ. Sci. Technol. 44 (2010) 6457-6463.
  19. Zhang L., Cai Z., Yang J., Yuan Z. and Chen Y.: Sci. Total Environ. 536 (2015) 142-149.
  20. Gerst M.D.: Environ. Sci. Technol. 43 (2009) 6320-6325.
  21. World Bureau of Metal Statistics: World copper statistics since 1950: 1983 supplement (World Bureau of Metal Statistics, London, 1983).
  22. World Bureau of Metal Statistics: World Metal Statistics Yearbook (World Bureau of Metal Statistics, London, 2016).
  23. Japan Electric Wire and Cable Makers’ Association: Densen toukei nempo, 1952-2015.
  24. Research and Statistics Department, Economic and Industrial Policy Bureau, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry: YEARBOOK OF MINERALS AND NON-FERROUS METALS STATISTICS, 1975-2001.
  25. Research and Statistics Department, Minister’s Secretariat, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry: YEARBOOK OF IRON AND STEEL, NON-FERROUS METALS AND FABRICATED METALS STATISTICS, 2002-2015.
  26. Homepage of Japan Copper and Brass Association: Database of copper and copper alloy, http://copper-brass.gr.jp/databases/statistics, 2017/5/30.
  27. BGRIMM: China Copper Usage Database, (Beijing General Research Institute of mining and metallurgy, Beijing, 2010).
  28. Metal Economics Research Institute: Sekai no Doushouhi ni okeru Chugoku Youin to Sono Eikyo, (Metal Economics Research Institute, Tokyo, 2007).
  29. Data provided by the Japan Copper and Brass Association.
  30. United Nations: United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database, http://comtrade.un.org/, 2017/5/30.
  31. International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers: PRODUCTION STATISTICS, http://www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/, 2017/5/30.
  32. Homepage of The Japanese Electric Wire & Cable Makers’ Association: Densen, Cable no taiyou nensu ni tsuite, http://www.jcma2.jp/data/jcs_pdf/107.pdf, 2017/5/30.
  33. Dargey J., Gateway D. and Sommer M.: Energy J. 28 (2007) 143-170.
  34. United Nations: World Population Prospects, the 2015 revision, https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/, 2017/5/30.
  35. World Bank Group: World Development Indicators 2016, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/23969/9781464806834.pdf?sequence=2&isAllowed=y, 2017/5/30.
  36. International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook Database, April 2017 Edition, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/01/weodata/download.aspx, 2017/5/30.
  37. U.S. Energy Information Administration: International Energy Outlook 2016, https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/, 2017/5/30.
  38. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment: Copper: Technology and Competitiveness (U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, 1988).
  39. Japan Oil, Gas: Metals National Corporation: Kobutsu Shigen Material Flow 2007 (Japan Oil, Gas, Metals National Corporation, Kanagawa, 2007).


[JIM HOME] [JOURNAL ARCHIVES]

© 2018 The Japan Institute of Metals and Materials
Comments to us : editjt@jim.or.jp